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AR30453: Engineering risk and uncertainty

Academic Year: 2018/9
Owning Department/School: Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering
Credits: 6      [equivalent to 12 CATS credits]
Notional Study Hours: 120
Level: Honours (FHEQ level 6)
Period:
Semester 2
Assessment Summary: CW 50%, EX 50%
Assessment Detail:
  • Technical report (CW 50%)
  • Examination (EX 50%)
Supplementary Assessment:
Like-for-like reassessment (where allowed by programme regulations)
Requisites: Before taking this module you must take AR20386
Description: Aims:
To provide students with knowledge and understanding of how to use probability and statistical methods to analyse civil engineering problems involving geotechnical, hydraulic and structural analysis.

Learning Outcomes:

* Ability to understand and apply basic probability theory for problems involving variability and uncertainty
* Ability to use basic statistical methods for exploratory data analysis, model identification, parameter estimation and decision-making
* Ability to apply both analytical and numerical methods for describing the reliability of infrastructure with examples from geotechnical, structural and hydraulic engineering.
* Gain knowledge of how best to communicate of risk and uncertainty to both lay people and engineering experts.

Skills:
Intellectual skills:
* Understanding probability and statistical concepts and their relevance for civil engineering design
* Understanding of decision-making under uncertainty
Practical skills:
* Use of analytical and numerical methods for analysing civil engineering problems
* Statistical programming and data analysis in R language
Transferable skills
* Quantitative data analysis using statistical techniques
* Communication of risk-related topics

Content:

* Random variables and probability distributions
* Parameter estimation (method of moments, maximum-likelihood)
* Sample theory and hypothesis testing
* Uncertainty analysis: First order analytical method and Monte Carlo methods
* Low probability - high impact events (black swans)
* Decision-making under uncertainty
* Communication of risk
Programme availability:

AR30453 is Optional on the following programmes:

Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering
  • UEAR-AFB07 : BEng(Hons) Civil Engineering (Year 3)
  • UEAR-AKB07 : BEng(Hons) Civil Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)
  • UEAR-AFM03 : MEng(Hons) Civil and Architectural Engineering (Year 3)
  • UEAR-AKM03 : MEng(Hons) Civil and Architectural Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)
  • UEAR-AFM07 : MEng(Hons) Civil Engineering (Year 3)
  • UEAR-AKM07 : MEng(Hons) Civil Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)

Notes:

  • This unit catalogue is applicable for the 2018/19 academic year only. Students continuing their studies into 2019/20 and beyond should not assume that this unit will be available in future years in the format displayed here for 2018/19.
  • Programmes and units are subject to change in accordance with normal University procedures.
  • Availability of units will be subject to constraints such as staff availability, minimum and maximum group sizes, and timetabling factors as well as a student's ability to meet any pre-requisite rules.
  • Undergraduates: .
  • Postgraduates: .